TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 11:12 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Miller Lite beer sales in August 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether the sales growth, measured by a specific index, stays above certain negative percentage thresholds. The data comes from a panel that collects point-of-sale information from various retail channels.
These markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth index for August 2026, comparing sales to August of the prior year. The index, where 100 indicates equal year-over-year sales, uses a panel that captures in-store and online purchases through receipt scanning and rewards apps, updated daily. Each market has a different threshold, ranging from -25% to -9%, and resolves to 'Yes' if the first reported index value for August 2026 is above its respective threshold. Any corrections or revisions after settlement do not affect the outcome. Kalshi is unrelated to the underlying company, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Currently, prediction market odds imply a different outlook than many analyst forecasts for this market. While analysts may lean toward stable or modest growth, traders are pricing in a range of possible outcomes that could be more aggressive or conservative. This divergence creates an interesting opportunity to compare crowd-sourced expectations against institutional research. Monitoring both sources side by side can help identify potential shifts in market sentiment as new sales data or industry reports emerge.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on official sales figures released by the company or a recognized industry source. Traders should watch for announcements in early September, as these reports typically set the benchmark for calculating the exact growth percentage that settles this market.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including early retail performance reports, industry-wide sales trends, and any public statements from the brand or its competitors. Economic factors such as consumer spending patterns or changes in advertising campaigns may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, unexpected events like supply chain updates or promotional activity could cause rapid price adjustments as participants reassess their expectations ahead of the final data release.