TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$279,496,801
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
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4,571
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Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?
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Description
The outcome reflects voter preferences among young men during the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Exit polls will measure party support among voters aged 18-29, determining which party garners more backing from this demographic.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on national U.S. House exit poll data for young men (18-29) conducted during the 2026 midterm elections. A party wins if it receives the higher reported share among this group. If tied, each tied strike receives an equal portion of the settlement value. CNN provides the primary figure at Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with CBS and ABC as backups if needed.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective when compared to traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intention at a given moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing more about deeply held beliefs and strategic considerations. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to factors like sampling bias in polls, strategic misreporting by respondents, or the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of information. It's important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the election.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of each party winning the young men vote. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades depend on correct forecasts.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on verified exit poll data or official election results indicating which party received the greater share of the vote among men aged 18-29. The data source will be a widely recognized and trusted source for election results, ensuring an objective determination of the winning party. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi after the resolution process is complete.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in national or state-level polling data, particularly focusing on young male voters, would likely cause price adjustments. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures popular with this demographic could also move the market. Furthermore, any significant economic news or geopolitical events that disproportionately affect young men could influence trading activity. Finally, campaign events, debates, and advertising campaigns specifically targeting this voter group will be closely watched and could lead to substantial changes in the odds.
