TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 05d:18h:08m
Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?
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Description
This outcome measures which political party gains more support from voters aged 65 and older during the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. It uses exit poll data focused on this age group, offering insight into how older citizens influence the electoral landscape and their policy priorities.
Kalshi
Resolution follows the same process as the first market: the national U.S. House exit poll data for voters aged 65 and older is used, with CNN as the primary source. The applicable figure must be displayed by November 6, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET; if unavailable, CNN remains the source for an additional 24 hours. If still unavailable, CBS and then ABC will be used, in that order, through November 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A party wins if it receives the higher reported share among voters aged 65 and older. In case of a tie, each tied strike receives an equal portion of the Settlement Value, calculated as 1/N, where N is the number of tied strikes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data for the 65+ voter demographic. While polls provide a snapshot of stated intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those intentions, potentially revealing more nuanced beliefs about the likelihood of each party’s success. Discrepancies between the two can arise from factors like polling methodology, voter turnout assumptions, and the potential for strategic trading within the market itself. It's important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the potential outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, which party will win the 65+ voter demographic. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential outcome. The current implied probabilities are derived from these contract prices.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning party will be determined by which party receives the most votes from individuals aged 65 and older, as reported by official election authorities. The resolution will be based on the final, certified vote count for this specific demographic, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the resolved outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Nov 8, 2026. Major economic announcements impacting seniors, shifts in key policy positions related to social security or healthcare, and significant endorsements from influential figures could all cause traders to reassess their positions. Unexpected changes in voter turnout projections for the 65+ demographic, or any major news events affecting public perception of the candidates, could also drive price movements. Additionally, the release of new polling data specifically focused on this voter segment will likely have an impact on trading activity.
