TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 9, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on June 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on June 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing either an up or down outcome for MSFT on June 9. Each share costs between $0 and $1, with the price reflecting the market's collective probability. As traders place orders, the price adjusts in real time. You can enter a position by buying shares at the current ask price or selling at the bid, and your profit or loss is determined by the final settlement price once the market resolves after the close on June 9.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing Microsoft's closing stock price on June 9 to establish whether it finished higher or lower than the opening price on that date. Once the market close data is confirmed, the winning outcome is settled and traders receive payouts based on their positions. The event captures a single trading day's directional movement, making it a short-term, focused bet on MSFT's near-term momentum.
Several catalysts could influence MSFT's price on June 9, including earnings announcements, cloud or AI product updates, regulatory news, and macroeconomic data releases. Microsoft's Azure and AI initiatives are closely watched by investors, so any guidance changes or competitive developments could trigger volatility. Broader market sentiment, tech sector rotation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical events also matter. Additionally, options expiration, index rebalancing, or large institutional trades near June 9 may create technical pressure. Monitoring earnings calendars, press releases, and market commentary helps traders anticipate moves.