TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 3, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on June 3, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on June 3, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst consensus. While Wall Street equity analysts publish price targets and earnings estimates, prediction markets price in broader information including macroeconomic conditions, sector momentum, and event-specific catalysts. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst sentiment on MSFT can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk. Markets typically react faster to new information than formal analyst revisions, making them a complementary signal to traditional research.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing either an up or down close for MSFT on June 3. Share prices range from $0 to $1, with the sum of both outcomes equaling $1. The current implied probability is reflected in the share price; higher demand for one outcome drives its price up and the competing outcome down. Liquidity and order-book depth on Polymarket determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions at any given moment.
Key catalysts include Microsoft earnings announcements, cloud-computing demand signals, AI product developments, and broader tech sector performance. Macroeconomic data—inflation reports, interest-rate expectations, and recession concerns—can shift sentiment on large-cap tech stocks. Competitive announcements from rivals like Amazon or Google may also influence MSFT positioning. Geopolitical events, regulatory news affecting cloud or AI regulation, and insider trading activity can create intraday volatility. Traders monitoring these signals often adjust positions ahead of June 3, moving market odds in real time.