TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 9?
polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 9?

Volume:
$2,800

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 9?

 - Polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 9? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 9?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,800
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on July 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on July 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on July 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on July 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the MSFT stock direction market dashboard tracks real-time odds on whether Microsoft's stock price will close higher or lower on July 9. The interface displays current bid-ask spreads, historical price movements, and trading activity as participants buy and sell shares representing each outcome. This dashboard lets you monitor how market sentiment shifts as new information about the company, broader tech sector trends, or macroeconomic conditions emerges. You can view order depth and recent trade history to gauge liquidity and conviction among traders positioning for that specific date.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders with skin in the game, often diverging from traditional analyst price targets or consensus estimates. While Wall Street analysts publish formal forecasts based on earnings models and company guidance, this market aggregates dispersed information and incentivizes accuracy through financial reward. Traders may price in short-term volatility, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shocks that analysts' longer-term outlooks miss. Comparing the implied probability here to published analyst sentiment can reveal where the market sees asymmetric risk or where consensus may be overconfident.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker or order-book system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one outcome—Microsoft up or down—and the price of each reflects the collective assessment of all active traders. As new information arrives or positions shift, the spread between bid and ask prices tightens or widens, signaling confidence or uncertainty. The current odds you see represent the marginal price at which the next trade would execute.

This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once the trading day closes and Microsoft's stock direction for that date is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by whether MSFT's closing price on July 9 is higher or lower than the previous trading day's close. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing shares expire worthless. Resolution is typically confirmed within hours of market close, allowing quick settlement.

Earnings announcements, product launches, regulatory news, or management changes at Microsoft can shift trader conviction sharply. Broader tech sector movements, interest rate decisions, or macroeconomic data releases also influence sentiment around large-cap stocks. Unexpected competitive threats or partnership announcements may trigger repricing. Intraday volatility on July 9 itself—especially around market open or close—can create last-minute trading as participants hedge or double down. Monitoring financial news and options market activity leading up to that date often signals where sophisticated traders are positioning.