TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 11:01 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future MSFT price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of market participants. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to this outcome, and it's constantly updated as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the probability of the event occurring.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on that date. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual outcome. The market's resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and objective determination of the result, reflecting the collective prediction of those who participated.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements from Microsoft regarding earnings, new product launches, or significant strategic shifts would likely cause price movement. Broader economic indicators, such as interest rate changes or overall market sentiment, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to the technology sector or Microsoft’s competitors could also impact trading activity. Any developments that alter the perceived future prospects of Microsoft’s stock price have the potential to move this market considerably before Sep 21, 2026.
