This group of markets asks whether the stock price of Micron Technology (MU) will be higher or lower on September 14, 2026, compared to the prior trading day's closing price. The markets rely on closing price data from Pyth or the primary exchange.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms rely on the same core logic of comparing the closing price on September 14th to the prior day's close, and both specify Pyth as the primary data source with a fallback to the primary exchange.Primary resolution logic: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD)

Core resolution logic:

The market resolves based on the closing price of Micron (MU) on September 14, 2026.
The closing price is compared to the closing price on the most recent prior trading day.
If September 14th close > prior day close, the market resolves to 'Up'.
If September 14th close < prior day close, the market resolves to 'Down'.
If September 14th close = prior day close, the market resolves 50-50.

Edge cases & clarifications:

No Trading on 9/14: If Micron does not trade on September 14, 2026, the market will resolve 50-50.
Pyth Data Failure: If Pyth data is unavailable, the official closing price from the primary exchange will be used.
Corporate Action: In the event of a stock split or reverse split, split-adjusted prices from Pyth will be used.

Timing: Resolution will occur after the close of regular trading hours on September 14, 2026, once the closing price is confirmed by Pyth or the primary exchange.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on September 14, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Micron (MU) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Micron (MU) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Micron (MU), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Micron (MU) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Micron (MU) trades governs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or firm positions, while this market aggregates diverse opinions from individuals incentivized to be accurate. This can lead to prediction markets providing an earlier or more accurate signal of future events. However, it’s important to remember that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts are probabilistic and not guarantees of future outcomes.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices for this market on Polymarket and Opinion may diverge due to several factors. Different user bases and trading activity on each platform can create price discrepancies. Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders, while Opinion could have a broader range of participants, influencing their respective predictions. Additionally, the liquidity and volume on each platform—currently $72—can impact price discovery. These variations reflect differing opinions and risk appetites among traders on each venue, leading to potentially different probabilities assigned to the same outcome.

Micron (MU) Up or Down on September 14?

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