TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 4, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on June 4, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on June 4, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street analysts publish earnings estimates and semiconductor sector outlooks, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment from active traders betting directly on June 4's outcome. Analyst forecasts tend to focus on longer-term fundamentals, whereas prediction markets react dynamically to near-term catalysts, earnings surprises, and macroeconomic shifts. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to professional consensus on Micron's near-term performance.
The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, after Micron's stock market close on June 4. Resolution is determined by comparing the closing price on that date to the opening price for the same trading day. The outcome hinges solely on whether the stock finishes the day higher or lower than its opening level, making it a straightforward intraday directional bet. Traders should monitor market hours closely as the resolution time approaches, since any last-minute price movements before the close will directly impact the final outcome and settlement of all positions.
Key catalysts for Micron on June 4 include earnings announcements, semiconductor industry news, memory chip demand signals, and macroeconomic data releases. Geopolitical developments affecting chip supply chains, competitor earnings or guidance, and shifts in AI-driven data center spending can all influence trader sentiment. Fed policy signals and broader tech sector momentum may also drive intraday volatility. Additionally, any Micron-specific guidance revisions, analyst downgrades or upgrades, or major customer announcements could trigger sharp price swings. Traders should monitor financial news, earnings calendars, and semiconductor sector trends closely in the days leading up to June 4 to anticipate potential market-moving events.