TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Micron (MU) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Micron (MU) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Micron (MU) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Micron (MU) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than institutional research alone. While equity analysts publish consensus estimates based on earnings models and industry trends, this market aggregates the collective bets of traders who profit or lose based on actual outcomes. Comparing the implied price range here to published analyst targets can reveal where the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to Wall Street consensus.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares, with each share worth $1 if that outcome occurs. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the collective bets of all active participants, updated in real time as new trades execute. Tighter bid-ask spreads indicate higher confidence and liquidity around specific price brackets, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty or lower trading activity in that range.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once Micron's official closing price for the week is verifiable from credible public financial sources. The outcome is determined by where MU stock closes on the final trading day of that week, confirmed through standard market data providers. Resolution occurs shortly after the market close, allowing traders to settle their positions based on the verified weekly closing price.
Earnings announcements, semiconductor industry supply-chain updates, and macroeconomic data releases can all shift trader sentiment and move this market significantly. Geopolitical developments affecting chip manufacturing, competitor earnings surprises, and shifts in memory-chip demand forecasts may trigger repricing. Additionally, broader equity market volatility, changes in interest-rate expectations, and analyst upgrades or downgrades on Micron can influence weekly price action and reshape the outcome probabilities traders are pricing in.