TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Abdul El-Sayed
- Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Latest in Elections
Time left: 19d:14h:17m
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
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Intro
This market tracks which candidate will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race. Currently, Kalshi gives a 68.0% probability to the leading outcome. The market resolves based on whether Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race, as determined by the election results. Keep a close watch on the general election itself on November 3, 2026, as the votes cast on that day will ultimately decide the outcome of this market.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified candidate wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race. Candidates must win the election as the official nominee of their listed party; failure to secure the nomination results in immediate No resolution. Markets are eligible for accelerated determination once major media organizations reach consensus on the winner.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, all contributing to a dynamic assessment of the election’s potential results.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Michigan Senate election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The market will determine which candidate secures the Senate seat, and the process is designed to reflect the official and widely accepted outcome of the election.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 3, 2026. Major events like candidate debates, significant endorsements, and unexpected campaign finance disclosures could all shift trader sentiment. Polling data releases, while often lagging indicators, can also impact prices. Furthermore, any unforeseen events affecting the candidates or the political landscape, such as major news stories or scandals, could lead to substantial movements in this market. Changes in national political trends could also play a role.
