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Michigan Senate Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent
kalshi

What will Abdul El-Sayed's vote percent be in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?

Volume:
$176,944

At least 48%

 - Kalshi

At least 48% - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 8:13 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 48%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,410
N/A
N/A
$2,964
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 44%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,892
N/A
N/A
$1,462
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 46%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,804
N/A
N/A
$1,629
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 47%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,793
N/A
N/A
$1,589
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 40%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,299
N/A
N/A
$2,500
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 43%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,221
N/A
N/A
$1,429
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 45%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,849
N/A
N/A
$1,559
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 41%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,229
N/A
N/A
$1,229
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 42%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,229
N/A
N/A
$1,201
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 51%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,525
N/A
N/A
$14,748
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 49%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,759
N/A
N/A
$16,811
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 50%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,195
N/A
N/A
$6,445
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 53%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,011
N/A
N/A
$5,526
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 63%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,351
N/A
N/A
$3,755
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 54%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,349
N/A
N/A
$5,880
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 55%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,066
N/A
N/A
$4,858
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 52%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,889
N/A
N/A
$4,958
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 57%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,817
N/A
N/A
$2,773
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 56%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,487
N/A
N/A
$2,760
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 62%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,087
N/A
N/A
$2,074
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 64%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,992
N/A
N/A
$1,974
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 58%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,850
N/A
N/A
$1,576
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 61%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,713
N/A
N/A
$1,587
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 60%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,615
N/A
N/A
$1,821
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 59%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,511
N/A
N/A
$1,278
10mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This event tracks how many votes Abdul El-Sayed receives in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary as a share of all valid votes. The outcome depends on whether his vote percentage meets or exceeds specific thresholds, with all calculations based on official, certified results.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary. For any threshold between 40% and 100%, if his certified vote share meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The percentage is calculated by dividing El-Sayed's total votes by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to the specified decimal places. Only certified or official results count—preliminary results are irrelevant. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If the election uses multiple voting rounds (such as ranked-choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified. Should the election be canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration date, or lack certified results by the expiration, the market automatically resolves to No. Additionally, if a recount alters the certified percentage before the market expires, the most recent certified percentage determines the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Michigan Senate primary race, showing how traders price the chances of different outcomes. It also displays current volume and 24-hour volume, letting you see market activity and sentiment as the primary approaches. The data reflects collective trader expectations on Kalshi, updated continuously throughout the campaign period.

While polls provide snapshots of voter preferences, this market reflects the real-time expectations of traders who can bet on the result. Currently, the implied probability may diverge from polling averages, revealing where the market sees value or uncertainty that polls have not yet captured. Traders often react faster to campaign developments than traditional surveys.

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be compared against the market's defined thresholds to determine the winning outcome, based on official and widely accepted sources.

Poll releases, candidate debates, endorsements, and major news stories about campaign dynamics can all shift this market. As voting nears, early voting data and turnout estimates may also influence trader sentiment. Any significant change in candidate viability or public opinion could cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi before the market resolves around Aug 4, 2027.