TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Haley Stevens
- Kalshi
Haley Stevens - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 25, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 24, 8:11 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks which candidate will finish in second place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary. Mallory McMorrow currently has a 40.0% probability of securing the second-place finish, while Haley Stevens is at 35.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified results of the primary election according to official sources. Watch for candidate announcements and campaign activity leading up to the primary election scheduled for 2026, which will clarify the final field and shape expectations for second-place positioning.
Kalshi
Ranking is determined by vote count or percentage for plurality voting systems, elimination order for ranked choice voting, final round results for two-round systems, and electoral authority seat allocation for proportional representation. Exact ties resolve proportionally. Write-in candidates achieving second place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific write-in option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked by votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations rather than traditional polling data. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate ongoing information including campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and ground organization. The current market pricing suggests meaningful probability for the Stevens 2nd place outcome, though direct comparison to polls requires examining whether recent surveys have explicitly measured 2nd place finishes versus overall primary preference. Markets often diverge from polls when traders anticipate shifts in candidate viability or consolidation patterns that surveys have not yet captured.
The Michigan Senate Democratic primary 2nd place market resolves on Aug 4, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary election. The outcome hinges on which candidate finishes in the second position by vote share or delegate count, depending on the specific resolution criteria established by the market operator. Traders should monitor official Michigan Democratic Party announcements and election results to understand how the final outcome will be determined and when the market will settle.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the 2nd place outcome. Major endorsements from Michigan Democratic leaders, union backing, or high-profile campaign events can reshape candidate viability. Fundraising announcements and cash-on-hand reports signal organizational strength. Candidate entry or exit from the race alters the competitive field and consolidation dynamics. Media coverage of gaffes or policy positions influences voter perception. Debate performances and campaign advertising intensity affect momentum. Demographic shifts in voter registration or turnout expectations in key regions also matter. Primary polling releases, especially as election day nears, provide direct signals about candidate positioning and potential 2nd place contenders.
