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Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?
kalshi

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$6,317,764

Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%

 - Kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 8:11 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$736,538
N/A
N/A
$311,095
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,491,144
N/A
N/A
$708,079
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$766,837
N/A
N/A
$373,126
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$731,590
N/A
N/A
$375,462
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, 6-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$634,112
N/A
N/A
$265,356
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$421,994
N/A
N/A
$217,422
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed, 9-12%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$365,013
N/A
N/A
$180,212
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132,553
N/A
N/A
$103,315
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens, 6-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,126
N/A
N/A
$10,291
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens, ≥15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,220
N/A
N/A
$8,079
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens, 12-15%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,970
N/A
N/A
$7,072
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens, 9-12%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,646
N/A
N/A
$4,274
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Mallory McMorrow wins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,022
N/A
N/A
$1,998
10mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether Abdul El-Sayed's margin of victory in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary will fall between 0% and 3%. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently holds a 99.0% probability, while the second outcome stands at 1.0%. The market resolution will be determined by official election results. The outcome will be resolved following the primary election on August 4, 2027.

Kalshi

The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage or raw vote count of the leading candidate minus that of the second-place finisher if the candidate wins, or minus the first-place finisher if the candidate loses. For tied first place, the margin is zero. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or appears multiple times, votes are summed. For uncontested races, the margin is 100 percentage points or total votes cast. Exact margin boundaries follow strict mathematical precision—for example, 5.99999% falls in the 5-6% range while exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range.

Frequently asked questions

The Odds & Prediction Markets dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for outcomes in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory event. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities for each outcome, 24-hour trading volume of $1,251, and cumulative group volume of $6,317,764. Users can monitor how odds shift as new information emerges, view the top outcome currently trading on the platform, and access price history to understand market sentiment evolution leading up to the Aug 4, 2027 resolution date.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' aggregated expectations about the Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin, often incorporating polling data alongside campaign momentum, fundraising, and endorsements. While traditional polling averages measure voter preference at a single point in time, prediction markets price in uncertainty and evolving conditions through continuous trading. Discrepancies between market odds and polls can signal trader skepticism about poll accuracy, changing dynamics, or differential weighting of late-breaking developments in the race.

The Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory market resolves on Aug 4, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official margin between the top two finishers in the Democratic primary election, as reported by Michigan election authorities. The outcome will be measured as a percentage-point difference and matched against the specific margin ranges defined in each contract. Once official results are certified, the market settles based on which outcome bracket the actual margin falls into.

Key catalysts for the Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin include new polling releases showing shifts in candidate support, major endorsements or campaign announcements, debate performances, fundraising reports, and local media coverage. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entry could reshape the race dynamics. National political developments affecting Democratic primary momentum, demographic shifts in voter turnout, and ground-game intensity in key regions may also influence final margin expectations. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust their positions ahead of the Aug 4, 2027 primary.