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Michigan: Benson's margin vs. El-Sayed's margin?
Benson by 3-6
- Kalshi
Benson by 3-6 - Kalshi
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Resolves Dec 2, 2026
Latest in Elections
Will the difference between Jocelyn Benson's governor margin and Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
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Description
The Michigan governor and U.S. Senate races will determine the vote margins for Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed. The market assesses the numerical difference between these margins, categorizing outcomes into specific ranges based on how many votes each candidate wins by compared to their nearest rival.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the certified November 3, 2026 general election results for Michigan governor and U.S. Senate races. Each candidate's margin is calculated as their vote percentage minus the percentage of the highest-finishing opponent, with total votes including write-in votes. The difference is Benson’s margin minus El-Sayed’s margin, rounded to two decimal places. Ranges from ≥0.00 to −200 cover all possible differences, with exact boundaries (e.g., 0.00, 3, 6, etc.) assigned to higher ranges. Negative differences indicate El-Sayed’s margin exceeds Benson’s.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different margin differentials. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific margin difference occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the eventual outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view of the election’s likely result.
This market resolves around Dec 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official results reported by the Michigan Bureau of Elections will be used to determine the margin of victory for each candidate. The difference between these margins will then be used to determine the winning contract in this market. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized and confirmed by Kalshi.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in polling data, significant endorsements, unexpected campaign events, or breaking news regarding the candidates could all cause price fluctuations. Changes in voter turnout expectations, particularly among key demographic groups, could also move the market. Additionally, any developments affecting the overall political landscape or public perception of the candidates could influence trader behavior and lead to adjustments in the odds offered on Kalshi.
