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MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?
kalshi

MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$42,457

Donavan McKinney, 3-6%

 - Kalshi

Donavan McKinney, 3-6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 8:10 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Donavan McKinney, 3-6%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,162
N/A
N/A
$4,710
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Donavan McKinney, ≥15%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,731
N/A
N/A
$3,216
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Donavan McKinney, 6-9%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,583
N/A
N/A
$2,877
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Donavan McKinney, 9-12%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,656
N/A
N/A
$1,366
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Shri Thanedar, ≥15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,545
N/A
N/A
$2,595
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Shri Thanedar, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,217
N/A
N/A
$2,119
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Donavan McKinney, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,009
N/A
N/A
$1,415
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Shri Thanedar, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,810
N/A
N/A
$1,606
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Shri Thanedar, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,796
N/A
N/A
$1,356
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Shri Thanedar, 9-12%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,451
N/A
N/A
$1,426
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Shri Thanedar, 6-9%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,287
N/A
N/A
$1,262
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Donavan McKinney, 0-3%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,210
N/A
N/A
$701
10mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 12

Description

The event tracks how much voters in a specific district prefer certain candidates over their nearest rivals during a primary election. It examines the difference in vote share between each candidate and the runner-up, categorizing outcomes into percentage ranges. The focus is on measuring competitive dynamics rather than final election results.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the margin of victory for specified candidates in the 2026 MI-13 Democratic primary. The margin is calculated as the difference in vote share between a candidate and the next highest vote-getter, with positive values indicating a win, negative values a loss, and zero a tie for first place. Each market corresponds to a specific candidate and a defined percentage range for this margin, from 0% to over 15%. All ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, with no rounding applied to the final margin percentage. If a candidate participates under multiple party affiliations or listings, all votes for that individual are aggregated. The outcome for each market is determined by whether the calculated margin falls within the specified range for that candidate.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the MI-13 Democratic primary margin market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the margin of victory in the upcoming primary. It also displays current trading volume of $42,457 and 24-hour volume of $0, giving you a snapshot of market sentiment and liquidity for this specific election outcome prediction.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices based on their expectations for the Democratic primary margin. The current implied probability reflects the collective wisdom of participants, adjusting continuously with new information. This pricing mechanism allows for rapid updates as polls shift or events unfold, capturing market sentiment distinct from traditional polling data.

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official primary results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin of victory will be determined by certified vote counts, reflecting the actual performance of candidates in the MI-13 Democratic primary.

Key events such as debate performance, endorsements, scandal developments, and shifting poll numbers can significantly impact this market. Economic indicators or major policy announcements may also influence trader sentiment. As the primary approaches, any surge or decline in voter turnout expectations could cause rapid price adjustments, reflecting evolving predictions for the final margin of victory.