TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
William Lawrence, ≥12%
- Kalshi
William Lawrence, ≥12% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 25, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 24, 8:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks how much William Lawrence wins or loses by in a primary election, focusing on specific percentage ranges. The outcome depends on the difference between his vote share and his closest competitor's, with precise boundaries defining each possible result.
Kalshi
The event determines whether William Lawrence's margin of victory in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within one of several specified percentage ranges, all extending upward from a given lower bound to 100% (exclusive). Each market corresponds to a distinct lower bound (3%, 6%, 9%, 12%, 15%, 18%, 21%, or 24%), and resolves to 'Yes' if the margin meets or exceeds that bound but remains below the next higher bound’s lower limit. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference between William Lawrence’s vote share and that of the candidate finishing immediately behind him if he wins, or the vote share of the candidate finishing first if he loses. A tie results in a zero margin. Margins are evaluated without rounding, and ranges are inclusive of their lower bounds but exclusive of their upper bounds. If William Lawrence runs under multiple party labels or listings, all votes for him are summed together for the purpose of calculating his total vote share.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader expectations about the Democratic primary outcome in MI-07, but it isn’t directly tied to public polling averages. While polls measure voter intent through surveys, this market prices in real-time trader sentiment influenced by campaign dynamics, fundraising news, and local events. Historically, prediction markets can diverge from polls due to different participant motivations and information access. For MI-07, shifts in trader confidence may precede changes in polling trends, especially as the primary date approaches. Monitoring both this market and updated polls offers a more complete view of voter sentiment evolution.
This market resolves around Aug 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final vote count is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact margin reported by authoritative news sources and official election results will determine which contract settles, based on the precise numerical difference between the top two Democratic candidates.
Between now and Aug 4, 2027, several key signals could shift this market. Major developments in candidate campaigns—such as debate performances, endorsements, or controversy—will heavily influence trader sentiment. Polling updates specific to MI-07 and changes in voter registration demographics can also create volatility. Fundraising announcements and media coverage focusing on local issues may sway odds, particularly as the primary approaches. Additionally, any last-minute candidate withdrawals or strategic realignments could dramatically reshape market expectations ahead of resolution.
