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364,467

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Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Total volume:
$55,668
Volume 24h:
$21N/A
Liquidity:
$4,008
11%
Open interest:
$14,779
0%

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

82%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 56 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
82%
Yes 100¢No 14¢
14¢
N/A
$4,183
0%
0%
$2,791
1mo 3w 5d
active
polymarket

1.5-2.0%

Trade
33%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
$574
$8,446
0.24%
2%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

2.0-2.5%

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
$653
$10,910
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

2.5-3.0%

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 24¢No 86¢
10¢
$535
$1,128
0%
0.84%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
17%
Yes 11¢No 99¢
10¢
N/A
$2,963
0%
0%
$1,735
1mo 3w 5d
active
polymarket

1.0-1.5%

Trade
10%
Yes 12¢No 93¢
5¢
$597
$3,390
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
5%
Yes 26¢No 100¢
26¢
N/A
$4,080
0%
0%
$2,045
1mo 3w 5d
active
kalshi

Cut more than 50bps

Trade
3%
Yes 51¢No 100¢
51¢
N/A
$5,732
0%
0%
$2,030
1mo 3w 5d
active
polymarket

3.0-3.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 3.8¢No 98.9¢
2.7¢
$426
$418
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Hike 50bps

Trade
2%
Yes 6¢No 100¢
6¢
N/A
$5,442
0%
0%
$2,010
1mo 3w 5d
active
kalshi

Cut 50bps

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$4,464
0%
0%
$1,897
1mo 3w 5d
active
kalshi

Hike more than 50bps

Trade
2%
Yes 85¢No 100¢
85¢
N/A
$3,287
0%
0%
$2,272
1mo 3w 5d
active
polymarket

<0.5%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.2¢
0.8¢
$409
$452
0%
3%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

3.5%+

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.7¢
1.3¢
$385
$433
0%
38%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

0.5-1.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$428
$339
0.06%
12%
N/A
1mo 2w 5d
active
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Mexico's quarterly GDP growth for Q3 2026 across two prediction markets. Polymarket focuses on GDP growth rate brackets, while Kalshi addresses potential Bank of Mexico interest rate actions at its November 2026 meeting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence between GDP growth measurement (Polymarket) and central bank interest rate decision (Kalshi)Hero tip: These markets track completely different economic events. Polymarket resolves based on actual GDP data, while Kalshi resolves based on monetary policy decisions. Treat them as separate bets with no expected correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Mexico's Y/Y GDP growth rate in Q3 2026 from INEGI's October 30, 2026 release, using bracket logic for exact midpoint values
  • Kalshi: Resolves based solely on the specific action taken by Bank of Mexico at its November 2026 Governing Board meeting, with ANY action (cut, maintain, hike) resolving to Yes
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

The resolution of these markets hinges on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Mexico following its November Governing Board meeting. Each market corresponds to a specific rate movement: cutting or hiking by various basis point amounts, or maintaining the current rate. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple rates issued by the bank are disregarded unless explicitly stated. If the scheduled meeting is cancelled or delayed beyond the expiration date, all 'No change' markets resolve to Yes, while all others resolve to No. Emergency rate adjustments occurring outside scheduled meetings do not impact contract resolutions. Basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning that a 50 basis point cut, for example, satisfies both the 'Cut 50bps' and 'Cut more than 50bps' markets. The outcome is determined solely by the official announcement made at the conclusion of the meeting.

Frequently asked questions

The Mexico GDP growth market dashboard aggregates betting data across multiple venues, letting you see real-time consensus and volume trends for the Mexico GDP growth market. It shows combined volume of $55,668 and recent 24-hour volume of $21, with price differences between platforms highlighted. This view helps traders spot momentum shifts and compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users price the probability of various GDP growth ranges.

On Polymarket, this market currently reflects a probability of 32.5% for its leading outcome, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts due to real-time trader sentiment and market dynamics. Analysts may use different methodologies or weight recent economic indicators differently, leading to variations in expected GDP growth ranges. Traders in this market react quickly to news such as policy changes or trade data, which can cause odds to shift faster than slower-moving consensus estimates from institutions.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary because of differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading features. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? at 32.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting? at 82.0%. The spread of 49.5 percentage points often reflects these platform-specific dynamics, including how each venue handles order flow and fee structures, which influence trader behavior and price discovery.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on official data releases from recognized Mexican government statistical agencies. Traders should watch for the quarterly GDP report that becomes public after the end of Q3 2026, as this will set the definitive growth range that settles all positions.

Key signals that could shift this market include Mexican government announcements on fiscal or monetary policy, major changes in global commodity prices that affect exports, and preliminary economic indicators such as industrial production or consumer spending data released throughout 2026. Geopolitical developments, trade negotiations, or natural disasters impacting production could also cause rapid re-pricing, especially if new information suggests a higher or lower likelihood of hitting specific GDP growth thresholds.