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405,232

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Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Volume:
$53,198

2.0-2.5%

 - Polymarket

2.0-2.5% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 30, 10:38 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

2.0-2.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.8%

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,383
N/A
N/A
$2,880
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,898
N/A
N/A
$3,372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,077
N/A
N/A
$2,029
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$558
N/A
N/A
$558
Settled
Yes
polymarket

-0.5-0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<-0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.0-1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.5-2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.0-0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.5-1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.1%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group contains prediction markets on Mexico's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026. Polymarket offers 8 bracketed range markets plus one tail risk market covering the full distribution of possible outcomes. However, Kalshi's markets reference Brazilian GDP instead of Mexican GDP, creating a critical data mismatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket markets resolve on Mexico GDP growth for Q2 2026, while Kalshi markets resolve on Brazilian GDP growth for Q2 2026. This is a country/data mismatch that makes the event groups fundamentally incompatible and one or both sets of markets likely mislabeled or miscategorized.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets hedge each other or represent the same underlying event. Contact both platforms immediately to clarify: (1) whether Kalshi's markets are a labeling error and should reference Mexico, or (2) whether Kalshi's markets are intentionally on Brazil and belong in a separate event group. Until resolved, treat these as two separate and unrelated event groups.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on Mexico's Y/Y GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 from INEGI's official Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP release scheduled July 30, 2026. Eight bracketed range markets (0.0-0.5%, 0.5-1.0%, 1.0-1.5%, 1.5-2.0%, 2.0-2.5%, >=2.5%) plus tail risk markets (<-0.5%, -0.5-0.0%). Tie-breaking rule: if value falls exactly between two brackets, resolves to higher range. Uses initial release data only; post-release revisions ignored. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP release for Q2 of 2026.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves on Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 with seven threshold-based markets (>1.5%, >1.6%, >1.7%, >1.8%, >1.9%, >2.0%, >2.1%). No official source, release date, or data provider specified. No tie-breaking rules or revision policy documented. Key Quote: 'If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above [threshold]%, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by Brazil's official year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026. Each outcome represents a specific growth threshold, and resolves to Yes if the reported GDP growth exceeds that threshold. The thresholds range from above 1.5% to above 2.1%.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, often diverging from traditional economist surveys. Markets price in tail risks, policy uncertainty, and forward-looking sentiment that consensus forecasts may lag. Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth odds incorporate expectations around peso volatility, nearshoring trends, and central bank policy. While analyst consensus typically clusters around mid-range estimates, prediction markets can shift rapidly on new data, geopolitical developments, or shifts in US economic conditions that affect Mexican trade and investment flows.

Key catalysts include US economic data and Fed policy shifts, which drive Mexican export demand and nearshoring investment. Domestic factors such as BANXICO rate decisions, peso strength, and fiscal policy announcements will influence growth expectations. Trade tensions, tariff announcements, or changes in US immigration policy can rapidly repricing Mexico's growth outlook. Monthly PMI releases, industrial production reports, and retail sales data throughout 2025 and early 2026 provide real-time signals. Political developments and central bank communications will also shape trader positioning ahead of the Q2 GDP release.