TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$93,512,876

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,170,643,411

338,472

Markets across

33,488

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,292

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?

18%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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24h
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Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Meta market cap market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $1,248. It shows how traders on this single venue are pricing the chance that Meta’s market capitalization falls within a specific range by the end of October 2026. The interface updates continuously to reflect the latest bets and positions taken within this market.

Currently, this market shows a strong inclination toward one outcome, with the leading possibility holding around 38.0% probability according to trader bets on Polymarket. This contrasts with many traditional analyst forecasts, which may present a wider range of expectations for Meta’s valuation growth. The gap highlights how market participants price risks and opportunities differently than consensus estimates from research houses.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through their bids and offers, which reflect the aggregated wisdom of participants betting on Meta’s market cap range by Oct 31, 2026. The current top outcome dominates with about 38.0% implied probability, driven by recent trading activity and positioning within this single venue. Volume of $1,248 supports the price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. By that date, Meta’s market capitalization will be measured and compared against the defined range to determine which side of the bet wins. The process relies on widely accepted financial data sources to establish the final result.

Several key events could shift this market over the coming months, including Meta’s quarterly earnings reports, major product launches, regulatory developments affecting tech valuations, and broader market trends impacting tech stocks. Any surprise announcement — positive or negative — may cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their expectations for the company’s future market value heading toward Oct 31, 2026.