TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on June 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on June 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Meta's stock direction, while traditional analyst forecasts rely on fundamental research and earnings models. Analysts typically issue longer-term price targets and ratings, whereas prediction markets concentrate on a specific binary outcome on a single date. Market odds can diverge from analyst sentiment when new earnings surprises, regulatory news, or macroeconomic shifts occur close to the resolution date. Comparing the two reveals whether professional analysts and market participants agree on Meta's near-term momentum heading into June 2.
On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing either an Up or Down outcome for Meta's stock on June 2. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the collective bets of all market participants; higher prices indicate stronger conviction that Meta will close up. Liquidity and order-book depth determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions at any given price. As new information surfaces—earnings reports, product announcements, or broader tech-sector moves—the price adjusts dynamically to reflect updated expectations about Meta's stock direction on that specific date.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026, marking the official settlement time for all positions. Resolution is determined by comparing Meta's stock price at market close on June 2 to its opening price that same day. If the closing price exceeds the opening price, the Up outcome wins; if it closes lower or flat, the Down outcome prevails. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout automatically once the outcome is confirmed and the market officially settles.
Key catalysts include Meta's quarterly earnings announcements, user growth metrics, advertising revenue trends, and artificial intelligence product developments. Regulatory news—such as antitrust investigations or content moderation rulings—can trigger sharp moves. Broader tech-sector sentiment, changes in interest rates, and macroeconomic data also influence Meta's stock. Management commentary on capital allocation, stock buybacks, or strategic pivots may shift investor outlook. Competitive pressures from other social-media or AI platforms, as well as unexpected geopolitical or economic shocks, represent tail risks that could swing the market sharply in either direction before June 2.