TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money commitments from traders rather than consensus estimates. While equity analysts publish formal forecasts based on financial models and company guidance, this market prices outcomes through continuous trading by participants with skin in the game. Analysts typically issue quarterly or event-driven updates, whereas prediction markets adjust instantly to breaking news, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts. The two approaches complement each other: analyst forecasts provide fundamental anchors, while market odds reveal what informed traders actually believe will happen.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into implied probabilities for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different closing price ranges, and the cost of each share reflects the collective belief in that outcome. As more capital flows into a particular price range, its odds rise and its cost increases. The market's price discovery is continuous and transparent, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at any time before the market resolves.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once Meta's closing stock price for the week of July 13 is finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official closing price reported at market close on the final trading day of that week. Resolution is automatic once the price data is confirmed, with no manual intervention required. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome range receive their payout immediately upon settlement.
Meta's stock price during that week could be influenced by earnings announcements, regulatory developments, advertising market trends, or broader tech sector movements. Major product launches, management changes, or guidance revisions would likely trigger sharp repricing. Macroeconomic data—inflation reports, interest rate decisions, or recession signals—often move the entire tech sector and Meta with it. Competitor announcements or shifts in AI investment narratives could also shift trader sentiment. Real-time news flow and options expiration dates near the resolution window typically drive increased trading volume and volatility.