Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:33:51.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the real-time odds and price history for the Grüne 5% vote market, along with 24-hour volume of $1,070. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood that Grüne will secure more or less than 5% of the vote in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election. The data updates continuously to reflect market activity and sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share for Grüne will be compared against the 5% threshold to determine whether the over or under outcome is correct. The process relies on authoritative news sources and official election data to establish the result.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including key polling updates, major campaign events such as debates or scandals, shifts in voter turnout expectations, and endorsements from influential figures. Economic announcements, regional issues gaining prominence, or changes in leadership may also impact trader sentiment. Any development that alters perceptions of Grüne’s electoral prospects has the potential to move odds in either direction.

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