Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:33:15.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the CDU vote share market, along with 24-hour volume of $3,498. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the chance that the CDU will secure more or less than 10% of the vote in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election.

This market often reflects polling averages, but can diverge based on trader sentiment and recent developments. If polls show the CDU consistently above 10%, this market may price a higher probability of that outcome. Conversely, if surveys dip below the threshold, expect the odds to adjust downward. Traders may also react to campaign events or economic shifts before polls update.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share reported by official authorities will determine whether the CDU’s performance meets or misses the 10% threshold, settling all positions.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?

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