Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:33:36.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the BSW vote share market, alongside 24-hour volume of $737. It shows how traders on this single venue are pricing the likelihood of BSW securing more or less than 5% of the vote in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election.

On Polymarket, the current odds reflect trader sentiment about the BSW vote share market. These odds can diverge from polling averages due to real-time market dynamics, including trader expectations and emerging political developments. While polls offer a snapshot of public opinion, this market incorporates broader market analysis and may react more quickly to new information or shifts in voter sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share for BSW will be compared against the 5% mark to determine whether the 'Over' or 'Under' contract pays out.

Several signals could influence this market before Jan 1, 2027. Key events include regional polling updates, major party announcements, and shifts in public sentiment following debates or policy announcements. Any significant change in voter preferences or campaign developments may cause rapid adjustments in market odds as traders reassess their positions based on new information.

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