Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 35%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 35%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:32:59.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the AfD vote share market, along with 24-hour volume of $663. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the chance that the AfD will exceed or fall short of 35% in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity as the election approaches.

This market often reflects polling averages, but can diverge based on trader expectations about turnout, late-breaking events, or campaign momentum. If polls show the AfD consistently above or below 35%, this market typically follows, though it may price in a wider or narrower spread depending on perceived uncertainty. Traders may react more sharply to recent poll moves or scandals than the aggregated polling data suggests.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share reported by official authorities will determine whether the AfD surpasses or does not surpass the 35% threshold, settling all positions accordingly.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 35%?

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