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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
Latest in Health
Time left: 07d:11h:10m
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a collective prediction about the U.S. measles case count that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts or public health polls. While external sources might offer projections on measles incidence, this market represents a real-money view, where participants put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s possible that this market’s implied probability distribution aligns with expert opinions, or it could reveal a different assessment based on factors not fully captured in conventional analyses. Comparing the outcome of this market to those forecasts after Nov 1, 2026 will be insightful.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final U.S. measles case count will be sourced from official public health organizations, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and will determine whether the market settles in favor of a particular outcome range. The resolution will be based on the total number of confirmed measles cases reported in the United States by October 31, 2026, as documented by these official sources.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 1, 2026. Major outbreaks of measles in densely populated areas, changes in vaccination rates, or the emergence of new measles strains could all shift trader sentiment. Public health announcements from the CDC regarding vaccination campaigns or outbreak control measures would also be key catalysts. Additionally, any significant news coverage related to measles cases or vaccination efforts could impact trading activity and the price of shares in this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding market movements.
