TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Matthew Dunlap
- Kalshi
Matthew Dunlap - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 19, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 19, 8:33 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination for Maine's 2nd congressional district House seat in 2026. On Kalshi, Joe Baldacci holds 64.0% probability of becoming the nominee, while Jordan Wood stands at 32.0%. The market resolves based on which candidate officially wins the Democratic Party nomination to contest the 2026 ME-02 House seat. Watch the Democratic primary process and candidate announcements leading up to the November 3, 2026 general election date to gauge shifting support among party delegates and voters.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if Jared Golden, Matthew Dunlap, Joe Baldacci, Jordan Wood, or Paige Loud wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 ME-02 House seat. Only one nominee will be selected through the primary process.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking sentiment. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about the actual nomination outcome, including insider knowledge, campaign momentum, and fundraising signals. For ME-02, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent district polls can reveal whether the market is pricing in factors polls may lag on, such as candidate viability or party establishment support.
On Kalshi, the ME-02 Democratic nominee market is priced as a binary contract on the leading candidate outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the contract price, with traders buying or selling shares based on their conviction. As new developments occur—endorsements, debate performance, or fundraising reports—the price adjusts in real time. Volume and bid-ask spreads indicate market confidence and liquidity for each nominee scenario.
The ME-02 Democratic nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of Maine's Democratic primary or convention process for the 2nd congressional district, depending on how the party conducts its nominee selection. Once the Democratic nominee is officially declared, the market settles based on that determination. Traders should monitor state party announcements and official primary results as the resolution date approaches.
Key catalysts for ME-02 Democratic nominee odds include candidate announcements or withdrawals, major endorsements from party figures or local organizations, debate performances, fundraising disclosures, and shifts in district polling. Media coverage of candidate viability, campaign spending, and grassroots momentum can also influence market prices. Additionally, changes in national Democratic strategy or unexpected candidate scandals may reshape trader expectations about who will ultimately secure the nomination.
