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MD-03 Democratic nominee?
kalshi

MD-03 Democratic nominee?

Volume:
$2,028

Sarah Elfreth

 - Kalshi

Sarah Elfreth - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 24, 2026

Closed: Jun 23, 8:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sarah Elfreth

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,139
N/A
N/A
$696
1mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Austin Dyches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
$297
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Sean Hammond

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
$207
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Robert Morrison

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Jennifer Cross

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
$183
1mo 4d
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Sarah Elfreth will secure the Democratic Party nomination to represent Maryland's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 House elections. On Kalshi, the probability stands at 95.5%. Resolution will be determined by the Democratic Party's official nomination process for the MD-03 seat. Watch the primary election results and party endorsements leading up to the 2026 general election on November 3, 2026, which will confirm the eventual nominee.

Kalshi

This event resolves to Yes if any of the specified candidates wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 MD-03 House seat. The nomination process determines which candidate will represent the Democratic Party in the general election for this congressional district.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and insider knowledge that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous bets from participants with financial incentive to forecast accurately. For the MD-03 Democratic nominee race, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent polling snapshots can reveal whether traders expect polling to shift or whether they're pricing in factors polls don't capture, such as fundraising strength or organizational capacity.

The MD-03 Democratic nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of Maryland's 3rd district Democratic primary and the formal nomination process. Once the Democratic Party certifies its nominee for MD-03, the market settles based on which candidate matches the contract terms. Traders should monitor primary election dates, candidate filings, and party nomination announcements to anticipate resolution timing and final outcome determination.

Key catalysts for MD-03 Democratic nominee odds include candidate announcements or withdrawals, major endorsements from party leaders or local figures, fundraising reports showing financial strength or weakness, polling releases indicating shifts in voter preference, and debate performances. Media coverage of the race, campaign gaffes, or unexpected scandals can also trigger sharp price movements. Closer to the primary, early voting data and get-out-the-vote operation reports may signal which candidate has organizational momentum, causing traders to adjust their positions accordingly.