TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner
polymarket

MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Volume:
$13,984

Dan Schwartz

 - Polymarket

Dan Schwartz - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dan Schwartz

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Randi White

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

George Walsh

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$728
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Victor Guidice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination to represent Maryland's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, Dan Schwartz holds 90.5% probability of winning the nomination, with George Walsh at 6.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, with the Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026. Watch the primary election results on that date to see whether Schwartz maintains his commanding position or faces an unexpected challenge from Walsh or other candidates.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

The MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Democratic primary race in Maryland's 1st congressional district. You can monitor the current implied probability of each candidate winning the nomination, view historical price movements, and observe $632 in recent trading volume. The dashboard displays live bid-ask spreads, cumulative volume of $13,984, and outcome-specific charts that help traders and observers understand market sentiment and liquidity for this race.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling due to differences in methodology and incentive structures. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about the actual outcome, incorporating insider knowledge, campaign momentum, and real-time developments. The market-implied probability for the leading candidate may run ahead of or lag behind polling averages depending on recent news, fundraising reports, or endorsements. Comparing both sources provides a fuller picture of the race dynamics.

The MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 23, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of Maryland's Democratic primary election for the 1st congressional district. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the Democratic party's nomination for that seat. Traders should monitor official election results and party certification announcements as the resolution date approaches to understand the final determination.

Key catalysts for price movement include candidate endorsements from prominent local or national figures, campaign finance disclosures showing fundraising strength, debate performances or media coverage, polling releases, and grassroots organizing announcements. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entries, scandals, or shifts in voter demographics could significantly alter market odds. Primary election day results from neighboring races, turnout patterns, and last-minute campaign developments may also drive sharp repricing. Traders should monitor Maryland political news and Democratic party developments closely.