TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Match total payers in Q2
kalshi

Match total payers in Q2

Volume:
$31,650

above 13.15 million

 - Kalshi

above 13.15 million - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 4:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above 13.15 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,969
N/A
N/A
$2,663
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 13.2 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,448
N/A
N/A
$2,233
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 13.25 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,189
N/A
N/A
$5,719
Settled
No
kalshi

above 13.45 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,399
N/A
N/A
$2,634
Settled
No
kalshi

above 13.35 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,054
N/A
N/A
$2,985
Settled
No
kalshi

above 13.3 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,874
N/A
N/A
$2,129
Settled
No
kalshi

above 13.4 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,718
N/A
N/A
$2,350
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Match Group Inc. will report total payers exceeding 13.15 million during the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 83.0%. Resolution will be determined by Match Group Inc.'s official Q2 2026 earnings report, which will disclose total paying users across its portfolio of dating and social platforms. Watch for the company's Q2 2026 earnings announcement on or around September 3, 2026, when the actual payer count will be disclosed and the market will settle.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Match Group Inc.'s official Q2 2026 earnings report for total payers. Each threshold from 13.15 million through 13.45 million (in 50,000-payer increments) represents a separate resolution point. The reported total payers figure is compared directly to each threshold; if the reported figure exceeds a given threshold, that corresponding market resolves to Yes. All thresholds are evaluated independently based on the single reported total payers figure.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader conviction about Match Group's Q2 payer count, incorporating earnings reports, guidance, and competitive dynamics. Analyst forecasts typically rely on historical growth trends, industry reports, and company guidance. Markets often price in forward-looking sentiment that may diverge from consensus analyst estimates, especially when new data emerges. Comparing the current market probability to published analyst expectations can reveal whether traders are pricing in upside or downside risk relative to professional consensus.

The Match total payers in Q2 market resolves on Sep 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by Match Group Inc.'s official Q2 2026 earnings report and the reported total payer count. The outcome hinges on whether the company's disclosed figure exceeds or falls below the 13.45 million threshold. Traders should monitor Match Group's quarterly earnings calendar and any forward guidance updates that may signal payer trends ahead of the official announcement.

Key catalysts include Match Group's quarterly earnings releases before Q2 2026, management guidance on user growth and monetization, competitive pressures from rival dating platforms, macroeconomic trends affecting consumer spending, and any strategic acquisitions or product launches. Regulatory changes affecting online dating, changes in subscription pricing, and shifts in user engagement metrics could also influence payer trends. Analyst upgrades or downgrades and broader market sentiment toward digital consumer services may drive trading activity and price movement.