TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Massachusetts Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Massachusetts Governor election?

Total volume:
$1,330,305
Volume 24h:
$90,264
17%
Liquidity:
$106,023
3%
Open interest:
$1,020,950
9%

Democrat

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 5, 2027

Time left: 20d:00h:23m

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96.6¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 88% 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
96%
Yes 96.6¢No 4.7¢
1.3¢
$29,243
$42,483
0.2%
21%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
95%
1%
Yes 95.3¢No 5.1¢
0.4¢
N/A
$249,486
27%
181%
$187,434
2mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
95.4%
Yes 96¢No 4.9¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.3¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 95.3¢
0.3¢
N/A
$968,333
4%
43%
$833,516
2mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 96.5¢
1.2¢
$76,780
$70,003
0.28%
14%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.9%
Yes 4.9¢No 95.9¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.2¢
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. Currently, the consensus probability of a Democratic win is 95.8%, aggregating views from Polymarket and Kalshi. The Republican party is currently estimated at 4.7%. Resolution will be determined by the official certification of the Massachusetts gubernatorial election results. Keep an eye on the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026, as the candidates selected will likely influence market movement leading up to the general election.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms agree that resolution hinges on the inauguration of a candidate representing either the Republican or Democratic party, as determined by the official election results.Primary resolution logic: Official certification of the Massachusetts gubernatorial election results.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the inauguration of a governor representing a specific party.
  • The official certification of the election results is the ultimate source of truth.
  • Candidates are considered representatives of their party if they are the party's nominee.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification process will determine the winner, and the market will resolve accordingly.
  • Independent Candidate Wins: If an independent candidate wins, the markets focusing on Republican or Democrat wins will resolve to 'No'.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, the market will remain open and resolve based on the remaining candidates.
Timing: Resolution will occur once the official certification of the Massachusetts gubernatorial election results is published, confirming the inaugurated governor's party affiliation.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which party's representative is inaugurated as governor of Massachusetts following the 2026 election. A Democratic party representative or Republican party representative being inaugurated resolves the market to Yes for their respective outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the outcome of the Massachusetts Governor election. It aggregates trading activity across both platforms to provide a consensus view of the probability of different outcomes. Currently, combined volume across these venues exceeds $1,330,305, with $90,264 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a more comprehensive assessment than looking at any single prediction market in isolation, and provides a real-time pulse on expectations for the election's result. The dashboard reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can sometimes lead to divergences, as prediction markets can incorporate factors polls may miss, like strategic voting or hidden information. Historically, prediction markets have proven remarkably accurate in forecasting election outcomes, often outperforming polls. However, it’s important to remember that both tools have limitations, and this market represents one data point among many to consider when evaluating the race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to a number of factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, all of which can influence price discovery. Differences in market design, such as the types of contracts offered or margin requirements, can also contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors the Democrats winning the Massachusetts governor race at 96.0%, while Kalshi leans toward the same outcome at 95.3%. These slight differences are normal and reflect the independent price discovery process on each platform.

This market resolves around Jan 5, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Massachusetts Governor election by the relevant election authorities. This market is designed to reflect the final, certified results of the election, providing a clear and objective resolution based on official data. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected shifts in polling data are all potential catalysts. Debates between candidates often lead to price movements, as they provide voters with a direct comparison of the candidates' platforms and personalities. Any unforeseen events, such as a candidate dropping out of the race or a major scandal, could also cause substantial shifts in the odds. Furthermore, changes in the national political landscape or economic conditions could influence perceptions of the race and impact trading activity in this market.