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Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary: Seth Moulton vote percent
kalshi

What will be Seth Moulton's vote percent in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary?

Volume:
$184,518

At least 35%

 - Kalshi

At least 35% - Kalshi

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 6:51 PM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 35%

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,506
N/A
N/A
$4,160
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

At least 30%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,233
N/A
N/A
$3,078
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

At least 25%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,694
N/A
N/A
$1,207
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

At least 40%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$130,270
N/A
N/A
$53,329
11mo 6d
No
kalshi

At least 45%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,971
N/A
N/A
$3,757
11mo 6d
No
kalshi

At least 50%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,308
N/A
N/A
$4,602
11mo 6d
No
kalshi

At least 55%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,535
N/A
N/A
$2,215
11mo 6d
No
Total markets: 7

Description

In the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, voters will choose between candidates including Seth Moulton. The market tracks whether Moulton achieves specific vote percentage thresholds based on certified results.

Kalshi

Multiple thresholds (25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, and 55%) determine market resolution. The percentage of valid votes Moulton receives, calculated as (votes for Moulton ÷ total valid votes) × 100 and rounded appropriately, must fall within any of these thresholds for a 'Yes' outcome. Resolution depends solely on certified results; preliminary figures, write-in votes (if certified), and adjustments from recounts are considered. If the election is canceled, postponed past expiration, or no certified results exist, the market resolves to 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market reflects trader expectations that may diverge from public polling averages. While polls provide snapshots of voter intent, prediction market odds incorporate betting behavior, liquidity, and trader insights, often resulting in different implied probabilities. Monitoring both sources together can help identify potential shifts in voter sentiment before the final results are tallied.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once official vote tallies are verified against credible public sources. The final percentage of votes received by the candidate will settle all contracts, closing the market based on authoritative election results reported after ballots are counted. Timing depends on Massachusetts election officials completing the certification process post-election night.

Key events that could shift prices in this market include debate performance, endorsement announcements, fundraising disclosures, and any major gaffes or scandals involving candidates. Media coverage surges, internal polling leaks, and grassroots momentum metrics may also influence trader sentiment. As the primary nears, smaller polling updates and campaign ad spending reports often create short-term volatility, especially if they suggest unexpected shifts in voter preferences.