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Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
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Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Volume:
$17,986

Markey 25–30%

 - Polymarket

Markey 25–30% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 2:08 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Markey 25–30%

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Markey 35–40%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey 30–35%

0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,777
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey 15–20%

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,847
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey 10–15%

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey 40%+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey 20–25%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moulton 5%+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moulton <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey 5–10%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Markey <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the Massachusetts Senate primary margin market, along with real-time volume of $17,986 and 24-hour volume of $4,896. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different vote-margin outcomes among Democratic candidates, offering a dynamic view of market sentiment leading up to the election.

This market resolves around Sep 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote tallies will determine the margin of victory, and the market will settle based on which predefined margin range matches the official results.

Debates, endorsements, fundraising announcements, and any polling surges can shift this market. Key moments such as candidate debates or endorsements may cause rapid price adjustments, especially if they change perceptions about competitiveness. Unexpected developments — even minor ones — often create volatility as traders reassess the odds of different margin outcomes.