TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Graham Platner, ≥50%
- Kalshi
Graham Platner, ≥50% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 1, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the margin by which Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary. On Kalshi, the probability that Platner's margin of victory falls between 10% and 20% stands at 91.9%, while the probability his margin lands between 30% and 40% is at 7.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Maine Democratic primary results. Watch for the primary election outcome scheduled for June 2026, which will determine the final margin and settle this market by the resolution date of June 9, 2027.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage (or raw votes or electoral votes, depending on margin type) received by the candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate finishing immediately behind if the candidate wins, or minus the vote percentage of the first-place finisher if the candidate loses. For percentage points, margins are based on vote percentages; for raw votes, margins are based on total vote counts; for electoral votes, margins are based on electoral vote totals. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if the candidate loses, the margin is negative; if the candidate ties for first, the margin is 0. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast (for raw votes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate not only survey data but also fundraising, endorsements, turnout expectations, and trader conviction. While polls measure stated voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets aggregate real-money bets that reward accuracy. For the Maine Democratic primary margin, traders may price in factors like candidate momentum, organizational strength, and late-breaking developments that polls lag in capturing. Comparing market odds to the latest polling can reveal whether traders expect the race to tighten, widen, or confirm current survey trends.
The Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary market resolves on Jun 9, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of Maine's 2026 Democratic Senate primary election. The outcome will be settled based on the final certified margin between the winning candidate and the runner-up, as reported by Maine election authorities. Traders should monitor official state election announcements and any recount or certification processes that may affect the final determination of the winning margin.
Key catalysts for the Maine Democratic primary margin include candidate debate performances, major endorsements from state or national figures, campaign finance disclosures, and shifts in voter turnout models. Polling releases—especially late-stage surveys—can significantly reprrice the market if they show tightening or widening gaps. Unexpected candidate exits, scandals, or gaffes may reshape the competitive landscape. Media coverage of campaign momentum, ground game strength, and demographic shifts in Maine's electorate will also influence trader expectations. As the primary date approaches, early voting data and final pre-election surveys typically drive the largest price movements.
