TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Maine Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Maine Senate election?

Total volume:
$10,991,505
Volume 24h:
$101,874
65%
Liquidity:
$507,493
34%
Open interest:
$3,487,484
2%

Democrat

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Time left: 20d:00h:23m

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

60%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 60% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% APY not meaningful 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
60%
Yes 60¢No 41¢
1¢
$216,618
$1,263,419
1%
4%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Troy Jackson (D)

Trade
59%
1%
Yes 61.8¢No 44.2¢
6¢
$32,824
$506
0%
83%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
57%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$4,226,150
0.79%
6%
$1,247,225
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
57.6%
Yes 59.6¢No 43.1¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 6¢
predict

Susan Collins (R)

Trade
46%
Yes 49.5¢No 57.6¢
7.1¢
$32,224
$22,214
0%
12%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
44%
Yes 44¢No 57¢
1¢
N/A
$4,489,694
1%
9%
$2,240,259
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
42%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
$225,827
$989,524
0.38%
4%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
43.6%
Yes 45.2¢No 57.9¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 7.1¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election, considering both party-level outcomes and potential individual candidate wins. Currently, the consensus probability of a Democratic win is 58.5%, while the consensus probability of a Republican win is 45.8%. This aggregate reflects predictions from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, and will resolve according to the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification). Traders should watch the results of the Maine primary elections, scheduled for June 14, 2026, as a key signal of each party’s chances.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winner of the 2026 Maine Senate election using the same primary sources and fallback mechanism.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election, including any runoffs.
  • Resolution is based on the consensus call of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If no consensus, the official certification determines the winner.
  • Candidates are considered to represent a party if they are the party's nominee.
  • Independent candidates are not considered part of either the Democratic or Republican options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification will determine the winner.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets related to that candidate will likely resolve to 0, but this is subject to platform discretion.
  • Disputed Results: If election results are heavily disputed and the AP, Fox News, and NBC do not reach a consensus, the official certification will be the final source of truth.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The Maine Senate election in 2026 determines which party will hold the seat for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when a representative of either the Republican or Democratic party is sworn in as Senator of Maine for that term. If the Democratic candidate withdraws from the race and a Democratic representative wins the general election, the Democratic market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the outcome of the Maine Senate election. It aggregates trading volume of over $10,991,093 and 24-hour volume of $98,670 across both platforms, providing a consensus view of the predicted winner. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? at 59.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine? at 57.0%. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of market sentiment surrounding the election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. The collective wisdom of traders can sometimes anticipate shifts in momentum or account for biases present in polling data. It’s important to remember that both provide valuable insights, but represent different types of information about the Maine Senate election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing interpretations of available information or varying levels of risk aversion among traders on each platform can lead to price discrepancies. The volume traded on each platform also plays a role; higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the price, but even with significant volume, differences can persist.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Maine Senate election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. The outcome will be based on the candidate who receives the most votes in the official election count. This market reflects predictions about who will ultimately hold the Senate seat following the election.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, debates, and unexpected candidate gaffes could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in national political trends or economic conditions relevant to Maine could also play a role. Polling data releases, while often already factored into prices, can still cause short-term fluctuations. Any unforeseen events impacting the candidates or the election process itself would likely lead to movement in this market.