TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
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2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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At least 42%
- Kalshi
At least 42% - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 3, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will Troy Jackson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election?
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Description
This event tracks the vote share Troy Jackson receives in the initial round of the 2026 Maine Senate election. It focuses on determining whether his performance meets or exceeds specific percentage thresholds in the certified results. The outcome depends solely on the officially recorded vote count.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified percentage of votes Troy Jackson receives in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election. Multiple thresholds are defined, each specifying a minimum vote percentage (ranging from 44% to 60%) that, if met or exceeded, results in a 'Yes' outcome for that particular threshold. The vote percentage is calculated by dividing Troy Jackson's total votes by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to two decimal places. Only certified, official results are considered; preliminary figures are irrelevant. Write-in votes are counted if they appear in the certified results, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator (Jackson's votes) and the denominator (total valid votes). The resolution hinges entirely on whether Jackson's vote share falls within the inclusive range specified for each threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment than traditional polling averages. Polling data typically focuses on stated preferences, while this market represents what individuals are willing to financially back. Discrepancies can arise from factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, or differing levels of enthusiasm among supporters. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion on the likely outcome of the Maine Senate election.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a particular outcome, and the price of each contract reflects the collective belief of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand – if more people believe a candidate will win, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase.
This market resolves around Jan 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the first round of voting in the Maine Senate election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the percentage of votes received by Troy Jackson as reported by official election authorities. The final vote share will be the determining factor for settlement, and all outstanding contracts will be paid out accordingly.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Jan 3, 2027. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed through new polling data could all impact trading activity. Additionally, any controversies or negative news surrounding the candidates could cause a reassessment of their chances. Finally, debate performances and campaign events are likely to influence traders' perceptions and drive price fluctuations within this market.
