TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
At least 44%
- Kalshi
At least 44% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 3, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will Susan Collins receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election?
$
Description
This event tracks the vote share Susan Collins receives in the initial round of the 2026 Maine Senate election. It focuses on whether her performance meets or exceeds specific percentage thresholds, reflecting her electoral strength in that contest. The outcome depends solely on officially certified results from the first voting round.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified percentage of votes Susan Collins receives in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election. Multiple markets cover ascending percentage thresholds from 40% to 56%, each resolving to 'Yes' if her vote share meets or exceeds that specific threshold up to 100%. All markets share identical calculation methodology: the percentage is derived by dividing Collins' total votes by all valid votes cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to two decimal places. Only certified/official results count, with write-in votes included if certified, and invalid/spoiled/rejected ballots excluded from both numerator and denominator. Resolution occurs exclusively after final certification of the first-round vote totals.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than traditional polling averages for the Maine Senate election. While polls often provide a snapshot in time, this market represents a continuously updated assessment of the likely outcome, incorporating a wider range of information and expert opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the ability of the market to react quickly to breaking news or shifts in sentiment. It is important to note that both polls and prediction markets have their strengths and weaknesses as indicators of the final result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different vote share percentages for Susan Collins. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the election result. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will be, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Jan 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official vote count from the Maine Senate election will be used to determine the winning outcome. The percentage of votes received by Susan Collins in the first round will be the determining factor for settlement. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their predictions were accurate following the official announcement of the election results.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major news events, such as significant endorsements, debates, or campaign finance disclosures, could shift voter sentiment and impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Unexpected economic data releases or national political trends could also influence the market. Additionally, any polling data released between now and Jan 3, 2027 will likely cause fluctuations in trading activity and price adjustments as traders incorporate the new information into their predictions.
