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471,138

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Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
kalshi
polymarket

What will the Senate election margin be?

Total volume:
$249,810
Volume 24h:
$4,353
25%
Liquidity:
$195,301
66%
Open interest:
$95,637
2%

Democrats, 1+ pts

 - Kalshi

Democrats, 1+ pts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?

50%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democrats, 1+ pts

Trade
50%
Yes 51¢No 50¢
1¢
N/A
$66,913
0%
0.22%
$31,426
1y 2w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 3+ pts

Trade
36%
2%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
N/A
$77,815
2%
14%
$25,139
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Democrat 3-6%

Trade
33%
1%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
$33,847
$4,835
3%
24%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 0-3%

Trade
21%
2%
Yes 22¢No 81¢
3¢
$23,076
$1,871
3%
156%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Democrat 0-3%

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$30,533
$4,900
0%
54%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democrats, 5+ pts

Trade
15%
6%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
N/A
$49,249
3%
15%
$20,941
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Democrat 6-9%

Trade
12%
Yes 14.1¢No 89.4¢
3.5¢
$20,578
$2,530
0%
175%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 3-6%

Trade
8%
4%
Yes 11¢No 95¢
6¢
$5,651
$1,018
2%
69%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democrats, 7+ pts

Trade
8%
4%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
N/A
$19,593
3%
38%
$10,188
1y 2w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 9+ pts

Trade
7%
Yes 9.6¢No 92.9¢
2.5¢
N/A
$8,980
0.02%
6%
$3,752
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Democrat 9-12%

Trade
7%
2%
Yes 8.9¢No 95.5¢
4.4¢
$18,072
$639
0%
7%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democrats, 11+ pts

Trade
6%
Yes 6.9¢No 93.8¢
0.7¢
N/A
$4,224
1%
41%
$2,020
1y 2w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 13+ pts

Trade
6%
Yes 6.1¢No 94¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,802
0.13%
12%
$2,171
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Republican 9-12%

Trade
4%
Yes 6.9¢No 99.4¢
6.3¢
$17,812
$645
0%
5%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 6-9%

Trade
2%
Yes 3.5¢No 99.7¢
3.2¢
$15,562
$1,685
0%
2%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Democrat 12%+

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$14,479
$563
0%
19%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 12%+

Trade
0%
2%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$15,691
$546
0%
6%
N/A
2w 6d
active
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the expected margin of victory for Democrats in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine, specifically whether it will be at least 1 percentage point. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket is 55.0% for this outcome, and 40.0% for a margin of at least 3 percentage points. Resolution will be based on the official election results, as defined by whether the Democratic Party wins by the specified margin. Traders should watch the results following the election on November 3, 2027, to see how the final vote tally aligns with current predictions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets are framed from opposing party perspectives, requiring traders to interpret results in relation to both Democratic and Republican performance.Hero tip: Consider hedging positions across Kalshi and Polymarket to account for the differing perspectives. Focus on the overall expected margin of victory rather than solely on one party's performance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets ask whether the Republican candidate will win by a specific margin. Resolution depends on the margin of victory for the Republican candidate. "Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?"
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets ask whether the Democratic candidate will win by a specific margin. Resolution depends on the margin of victory for the Democratic candidate. "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 first round of the Maine Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Maine Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The Democratic Party's victory margin in the Maine Senate race is calculated as their vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the runner-up (or first-place finisher if Democrats lose). Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound; for example, a margin of exactly 6% falls within the 6-7% range rather than 5-6%. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. If the Democratic Party wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where Democrats are the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points. Votes cast under multiple party lines for the same underlying Democratic entity are summed together.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likely margin of victory in the Maine Senate election. It aggregates trading activity across both platforms to provide a consensus view of the probability of different outcomes. Currently, the combined volume for this market is $249,810, with $4,353 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects significant interest in forecasting the results of the election. Polymarket currently favors Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%? at 32.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points? at 50.0%.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information – not just stated preferences, but also fundraising data, campaign events, and even qualitative assessments of candidate performance. This can lead to discrepancies, as markets may anticipate shifts in voter behavior or account for factors not fully captured in polls. Examining both sources offers a more comprehensive understanding of the race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules all contribute. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform attracts traders with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to differing interpretations of the same data. The volume of trading on each platform also plays a role; higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the price. These factors can create temporary discrepancies, but the aggregated view aims to capture the overall wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory declared by relevant election authorities for the first round of the Maine Senate election. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it aligns with their predictions after the official announcement. The outcome will be determined by the official vote count, not by any specific polling data or pre-election forecasts.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major campaign announcements, debate performances, and shifts in fundraising totals are all potential catalysts. Unexpected endorsements or scandals involving candidates could also cause price fluctuations. Changes in national political trends or economic conditions could influence voter sentiment in Maine, and therefore, the market. Additionally, any significant polling data releases, even if already anticipated, could lead to adjustments in trading activity and price discovery within this market.