TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 180k
- Kalshi
Above 180k - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 1, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether total votes cast across all candidates in the 2026 Maine Senate Democratic primary will exceed 100,000. The leading outcome currently stands at 92.5% probability. Resolution is determined by official vote totals reported for the primary election, with Yes resolving if votes surpass 120,000. Watch the primary election scheduled for June 16, 2026, as actual turnout and candidate field size will be the key determinants of whether this threshold is crossed.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Maine Senate Democratic primary according to officially certified results from the relevant election authority. The vote count includes provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, and electronic ballots only if reflected in the official certification. In ranked-choice or preferential voting systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. Resolution uses officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals; preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, and uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid. If postponed beyond one year or canceled entirely, all contracts resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations about Maine Democratic primary turnout, which may diverge from traditional polling averages. Polls typically measure voter intent or likelihood to participate, while prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives and dynamic information. Market odds can shift faster than polls in response to campaign events, registration data, or historical turnout patterns. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect higher or lower participation than pollsters project, offering complementary perspectives on likely voter engagement.
The Maine Senate Democratic primary: voter turnout market resolves on Aug 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official final vote count reported for all participants in the 2026 Maine Senate Democratic primary election. The contract settles based on whether that total vote count meets or exceeds 180,000 votes. Traders should monitor official Maine election results and state Democratic Party announcements for the definitive turnout figure used to settle the market.
Several factors could shift Maine Democratic primary turnout expectations. Candidate announcements, campaign intensity, and media coverage may drive voter engagement. Changes in voter registration numbers or early voting participation offer real-time signals. National political events, debates, or endorsements could energize or suppress turnout. Historical turnout patterns in Maine Democratic primaries provide baseline expectations. Weather conditions on election day, polling place accessibility, and same-day registration rules also influence participation. Traders monitor these signals to adjust their probability estimates as the primary approaches.
