TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Hannah Pingree, 12-15%
- Kalshi
Hannah Pingree, 12-15% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 1, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks the margin of victory for various candidates in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary's final round. Participants can bet on the winning margin achieved by any of the primary candidates, with different outcome categories based on margin size ranges.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the margin of victory for specified candidates in Maine's Democratic gubernatorial primary final round, with outcomes divided into margin ranges from 0-3% up to 15% or greater. The margin is calculated as the vote percentage (or raw votes) received by the specified candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate finishing immediately behind them if they win, or the candidate finishing first if they lose. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. Winning margins are positive, losing margins are negative, and ties result in a margin of zero. For uncontested races where a candidate is the only participant, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and aggregated trader expectations. While polls measure voter intent at a single moment, prediction markets reflect dynamic expectations about the final margin outcome. Traders on Kalshi may weight recent campaign developments, turnout models, and demographic shifts differently than pollsters. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is more bullish or bearish on a particular margin range than survey data suggests, offering insight into which information sources traders find most credible.
The market resolves on Nov 3, 2027 following the completion of Maine's Democratic gubernatorial primary final round. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory announced by Maine election authorities. The outcome is measured as the percentage-point difference between the top two finishers in the primary. Once official results are certified, the contract settles based on whether the actual margin matches the specified outcome range. Traders should monitor official state election sources and news coverage for final vote tallies and any potential recounts or disputes that could affect the reported margin.
Key catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in candidate support, major endorsements or campaign announcements, debate performances, and voter turnout estimates. Media coverage of candidate gaffes or policy positions can rapidly reshape market expectations about the likely margin. Late-breaking news about campaign finances, ground organization strength, or demographic mobilization efforts may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, early voting data and exit polls closer to election day typically drive significant price movement as traders update their margin forecasts. Monitor Maine political news, candidate social media, and local reporting for developments that could widen or narrow the expected victory margin.
