TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 55%
- Kalshi
At least 55% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 9, 6:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The 2026 Massachusetts 8th district Democratic primary will determine the party's nominee for the congressional election. Stephen Lynch's performance will be measured by his share of the vote among all valid ballots cast in the primary.
Kalshi
Multiple markets exist for Stephen Lynch’s vote percentage thresholds from 43% to 67%. Each market resolves to Yes if his certified vote percentage falls within its specified range (e.g., 43%-100% for the lowest threshold market). Percentages are calculated as (votes for Lynch ÷ total valid votes) × 100, rounded appropriately. Results are based solely on official certifications, excluding preliminary counts, invalid/spoiled ballots, and rejected write-in votes. If ranked-choice voting is used, the percentage reflects the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market implies a very high probability that Stephen Lynch will surpass the 43% vote threshold, contrasting sharply with many public polling averages. Traders often price in information beyond the latest polls, such as candidate momentum, campaign spending, and local dynamics. Because prediction markets continuously update based on new data, their odds can diverge from static polling snapshots, offering a real-time barometer of electability.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final vote percentage reported by authoritative election authorities will set the settlement, ending all trading activity and determining whether market participants cashed out or settled contracts based on their positions.
Key events that could shift this market include debate performance, endorsements from influential local figures, late-deciding voter surges, and any controversies surrounding ballot access or campaign integrity. Media coverage, polling updates closer to the election date, and even weather events affecting voter turnout could also cause rapid price swings as traders reassess the odds.
