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MA-08 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Stephen Lynch)
kalshi

MA-08 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Stephen Lynch)

Volume:
$26,178

Stephen Lynch, ≥10%

 - Kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥10% - Kalshi

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 6:47 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥10%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,387
N/A
N/A
$3,454
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,138
N/A
N/A
$1,550
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥4%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,089
N/A
N/A
$1,596
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,588
N/A
N/A
$1,221
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,216
N/A
N/A
$1,735
11mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥12%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,916
N/A
N/A
$2,631
11mo 6d
No
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥14%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
$668
11mo 6d
No
kalshi

Stephen Lynch, ≥16%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,341
N/A
N/A
$1,331
11mo 6d
No
Total markets: 8

Description

Voters in Massachusetts' 8th congressional district will participate in a Democratic primary election on September 1, 2026. The outcome will determine which candidate secures the party's nomination for the upcoming congressional race.

Kalshi

Multiple markets assess whether Stephen Lynch achieves specific margin thresholds in the 2026 MA-08 Democratic primary. The margin of victory is calculated as Lynch’s vote share minus the next highest candidate’s share if Lynch wins, or the highest candidate’s share if Lynch loses. Margins are evaluated without rounding, with each range inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. Votes for Lynch across multiple parties or listings are aggregated. Markets resolve to Yes if Lynch’s margin meets or exceeds the specified percentage thresholds (2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, or 16%).

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the MA-08 Democratic primary margin market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the chance that Stephen Lynch wins by at least a 2% margin. It also shows 24-hour volume of $725 and total volume of $26,178, letting you see how trader sentiment and activity are evolving as the primary approaches.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin of victory will determine whether the contract settles for the ‘at least 2%’ outcome or the alternative. No further interpretation is needed beyond the publicly reported results.

Several key signals could shift this market before it resolves around Sep 1, 2027. Major developments in candidate campaigns—such as debate performances, endorsements, scandals, or changes in voter registration—may cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment. Economic indicators or national political trends that influence voter preferences in Massachusetts could also impact pricing. As polls tighten or break wide, market participants will react, potentially creating volatility. Additionally, any structural changes to the primary process, like voting rule adjustments or controversies over ballot access, might reshape expectations and move this market significantly in either direction.