TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the MA-05 Democratic Primary election?

Volume:
$78,247

Troy Jackson

 - Kalshi

Troy Jackson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Troy Jackson

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,819
N/A
N/A
$10,793
4w 1d 20h
Yes
polymarket

Katherine Clark

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jon Ossoff

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,301
N/A
N/A
$8,521
4w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

James Talarico

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,564
N/A
N/A
$8,238
4w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

Shenna Bellows

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,278
N/A
N/A
$4,221
4w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

Nirav Shah

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,775
N/A
N/A
$2,851
4w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

Haley Stevens

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,147
N/A
N/A
$1,225
4w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Jonathan Paz

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,975
N/A
N/A
$1,646
4w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

Sherrod Brown

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,968
N/A
N/A
$393
4w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Tarik Samman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$674
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mary Peltola

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$163
4w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks the Democratic primary race for Massachusetts' 5th congressional district. The markets cover both fundraising performance metrics and the ultimate nominee selection process for the 2026 midterm elections.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence between fundraising performance metric (Kalshi) and official nomination process (Polymarket)Hero tip: Track both ActBlue fundraising rankings around July 31 and official Democratic Party nomination announcements through September 2026. These represent two separate resolution paths.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any of James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, Jon Ossoff, Sherrod Brown, Mary Peltola, Troy Jackson, Haley Stevens, Nirav Shah, or Shenna Bellows is the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 31 at 10:00 AM ET
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on official Democratic Party nomination announcement for the September 1, 2026 primary, with fallback to Other if no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by checking the ActBlue directory (https://secure.actblue.com/directory) on July 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The candidate appearing in the leftmost position on that directory listing at that specific time is identified as the top ActBlue fundraiser. The corresponding market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate holds that top position. If the top fundraiser shown is not among the listed options, all markets resolve to No. Resolution relies solely on the directory's display at the specified moment, with no adjustments for subsequent changes.