TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 50%
- Kalshi
At least 50% - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 9, 6:46 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Richard Neal's performance in the 2026 Massachusetts 1st District Democratic primary, focusing on whether his vote share meets various thresholds. The outcome depends on the certified results, reflecting the final tally of valid votes after official certification.
Kalshi
The event determines whether Richard Neal achieves specific vote percentage thresholds in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary. Each market corresponds to a different minimum percentage, ranging from 45% to 75%, and resolves to 'Yes' if Neal's certified vote share falls within or exceeds that threshold. All markets share identical calculation methodology: the percentage is derived from the ratio of Neal's valid votes to the total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded appropriately. Resolution relies exclusively on official, certified results, disregarding preliminary or unofficial tallies. Write-in votes are counted if included in certified results, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. In elections involving multiple rounds (such as ranked-choice voting), the percentage is calculated based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of Neal securing varying levels of support within his primary contest.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be calculated from official election results, and the market will settle based on whether Richard Neal meets the specified threshold. No additional interpretation is needed beyond authoritative news sources and government records.
Key events such as debate performances, endorsement announcements, fundraising disclosures, and intra-party developments could shift this market. Negative polling trends or controversies might lower probabilities, while strong grassroots momentum or high-profile support could push them higher. As Sep 1, 2027 approaches, traders will react to any news that alters expectations about Richard Neal’s vote share, potentially increasing volume and volatility.
