TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Richard Neal, ≥5%
- Kalshi
Richard Neal, ≥5% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 9, 6:45 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks how decisively Richard Neal performs in the 2026 Massachusetts 1st District Democratic primary. It examines whether his victory margin meets or exceeds various percentage thresholds, reflecting the strength of his support relative to his nearest competitor.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the margin of victory Richard Neal achieves in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary. The margin is calculated as Neal's vote share minus the vote share of the candidate finishing immediately behind him if Neal wins, or the vote share of the candidate finishing first if Neal loses. If Neal ties for first place, the margin is zero. Each market corresponds to a specific margin threshold (e.g., ≥5%, ≥10%, etc.), and resolves to Yes if Neal's margin meets or exceeds that threshold. Margins are evaluated without rounding, with each range inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. Votes for Neal are aggregated if he runs under multiple parties or listings. The outcome depends solely on whether Neal's margin meets the specified threshold for each respective market.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin of victory will be calculated from certified vote tallies, determining whether the market settles for or against the predicted threshold.
Between now and Sep 1, 2027, several signals could shift this market. Key primary debates, endorsements from influential local figures, and emerging scandals involving candidates often cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment. Polling updates closer to the election date, especially those focused on voter turnout trends in MA-01, can also drive volatility. Additionally, any last-minute campaign strategies — such as targeted advertising or grassroots organizing — might reshape expectations about the margin of victory and influence betting patterns on Kalshi as the race progresses.
