TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Lululemon Monthly Credit Card Spend in August
kalshi

Lululemon Monthly Credit Card Spend in August

Volume:
$24,535

Above 90

 - Kalshi

Above 90 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 12:41 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 90

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,401
N/A
N/A
$3,333
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 80

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,358
N/A
N/A
$1,939
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 84

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,957
N/A
N/A
$966
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 82

View
0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,917
N/A
N/A
$1,250
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 78

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,801
N/A
N/A
$1,047
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,772
N/A
N/A
$483
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 86

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$278
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 79

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 77

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks projected credit card spending patterns for a specific retail brand during a defined month. The outcome depends on whether spending exceeds various thresholds, reflecting consumer behavior trends. Data sources use mobile location analytics to estimate year-over-year changes in spending activity.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Lululemon Monthly Credit Card Spend index for August 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from above 78 to above 90), and resolves to Yes if the reported index value exceeds its specific threshold. The determining value is the first report published by Carbon Arc, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. The index measures year-over-year changes in U.S. store visits, with 100 representing equal spending to the prior year, adjusted for seasonality, weather, and holidays using data from over 200 million devices. Daily updates occur as new data becomes available, but only the initial publication affects market outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Lululemon credit card spend market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $0. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different spending outcomes for the month, offering a live view of market sentiment and activity without combining data from any other venue.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and company guidance, traders adjust prices based on recent data, sentiment shifts, and short-term economic indicators. This can lead to notable differences, especially if new information emerges that isn’t yet reflected in formal reports.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will reflect the officially reported credit card spend figures for the relevant period, closing the market based on transparent, publicly available data rather than internal or proprietary sources.

Key signals that could shift this market include Lululemon’s quarterly earnings releases, changes in consumer spending patterns, economic announcements affecting retail trends, and any major marketing campaigns or product launches by the company. Unexpected macroeconomic developments or shifts in consumer confidence can also cause rapid price movements as traders reassess their expectations ahead of the final resolution.