TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Republicans, 24+ pts
- Kalshi
Republicans, 24+ pts - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 5th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Republicans will win Louisiana's 5th District House seat by a margin of at least 18 percentage points in the 2026 election. On Kalshi, the probability of a Republican victory with that margin stands at 70.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official results from the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Louisiana's 5th District, scheduled for November 2026, with the market settling based on whether the Republican candidate achieves a 24-point or greater margin.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is determined by calculating the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind them if Republicans win, or the first-place finisher if Republicans lose. The margin is calculated without rounding; for consecutive ranges such as 18-21% and 21-24%, a margin of exactly 21% falls within the higher range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple party labels, votes are aggregated. A positive margin indicates Republican victory, a negative margin indicates Republican loss, and a margin of zero indicates a tie for first place. For uncontested races where Republicans are the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market’s collective belief about the probability of each outcome. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising prices and increased selling pressure lowering them. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time assessment of the likely outcome of the Louisiana 5th District race.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the margin of victory in the Louisiana 5th District House election will be determined by official election results released by the relevant election authorities. The final margin of victory, calculated as the percentage point difference between the winning and losing candidates’ vote shares, will be used to determine which contracts settle positively or negatively in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, unexpected shifts in voter sentiment revealed by new polling data, or even unforeseen events impacting voter turnout could all influence trading activity. Additionally, any news related to candidate controversies or changes in the political landscape could lead to price fluctuations in this market for the Louisiana 5th District race. Increased media coverage or debates could also drive volume and price changes.
