TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Julia Letlow, ≥9%
- Kalshi
Julia Letlow, ≥9% - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 13, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 13, 7:13 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Julia Letlow will compete in the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate runoff election on June 27, 2026. These markets track the margin of victory she achieves relative to her nearest competitor, measuring how decisively she wins or loses the race.
Kalshi
The margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate runoff is calculated as the difference between her vote total and that of her nearest competitor. If Letlow wins, the margin is positive and equals her votes minus the second-place finisher's votes; if she loses, the margin is negative and equals her votes minus the first-place finisher's votes. A tie for first place results in a margin of zero, and an uncontested race yields a margin of 100 percentage points. Margins can be measured in percentage points, raw votes, or electoral votes depending on the market specification. No rounding is applied to calculated margins; boundary values are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, meaning a margin of exactly 6% falls within the 6-7% range, not the 5-6% range. If Letlow appears under multiple party affiliations or listings, all votes attributable to her are summed together. The various markets resolve Yes if the final margin falls within their specified thresholds (3%, 6%, 9%, 12%, 15%, or 20% and above, respectively) and No otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate a broader range of signals—including fundraising, turnout models, and late-breaking campaign news—into their pricing. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, this market reflects real-money bets on the actual runoff outcome, which can amplify or discount polling leads based on market participants' confidence. Comparing the two reveals whether traders believe polls underestimate or overestimate a candidate's margin, offering a complementary lens to conventional survey data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different margin-of-victory ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract reflects the probability traders assign to a specific outcome band, and prices adjust dynamically as buy and sell orders flow in. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as liquidity increases, allowing you to enter or exit positions with minimal slippage during active trading periods.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2027, once the runoff election concludes and results are verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official margin separating the two leading Republican candidates, measured in percentage points or votes depending on the contract specifications. Resolution occurs after all ballots are counted and any recounts or legal challenges are resolved, ensuring accuracy and finality.
Major catalysts include debate performances, endorsements from prominent national figures, campaign spending surges, and shifts in voter turnout models. Breaking news about candidate controversies or policy positions can trigger sharp repricing, as can changes in early voting or absentee ballot returns closer to election day. Polling releases, particularly those showing unexpected momentum swings, often correlate with significant volume spikes and price adjustments in this market.
