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512,155
Markets across
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December 31, 2028
- Polymarket
December 31, 2028 - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2028
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This market tracks whether the State of Louisiana will enact a statewide moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2028. Currently, the leading outcome – that Louisiana *will* enact such a moratorium – has a probability of 20.5% on Polymarket. The second most probable outcome, that Louisiana will enact a moratorium by December 31, 2027, is at 12.5%. Resolution will be based on official information from the Louisiana state government, as detailed in the resolution source. Traders should particularly watch for any legislative action or announcements related to data center policy leading up to the resolution date of January 1, 2029, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Louisiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Louisiana; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective when compared to traditional polling data on the likelihood of the Louisiana data center moratorium. While polls may capture general public opinion, this market reflects the aggregated insights of individuals with 'skin in the game' – those who are financially incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can highlight areas where informed traders possess unique knowledge or anticipate factors not fully captured in public surveys. This provides a potentially more nuanced view of the situation than either source alone.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the likelihood of the Louisiana data center moratorium being enacted by a specific date, and is driven by supply and demand for these contracts among traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether the Louisiana state legislature successfully enacts a moratorium on new data center construction before that date. The exact details of the moratorium will not be considered, only whether a legally binding moratorium has been enacted. This market provides a way to forecast the timing and occurrence of this policy change, offering a forward-looking assessment of the political landscape in Louisiana.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Key legislative developments in Louisiana, such as committee hearings, floor votes, and statements from key lawmakers, will all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements regarding energy grid capacity, water availability, or economic incentives for data centers could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any major shifts in public opinion or lobbying efforts related to data center development could impact the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves as the resolution date approaches.